Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State
Either Florida Atlantic or San Diego State is going to play for the national championship Monday night. In men’s basketball. Not beach volleyball nor water polo. March has indeed been Madness.
They’re going crazy in La Jolla and Boca Raton, presumably. If the folks there can tear themselves away from the beach.
Neither school has been to a Final Four until now. Neither school’s conference—Conference USA for the Owls, the Mountain West from the Aztecs—has put a team in the title game. But here we are, preparing for a barrier-breaking Final Four semifinal.
While this is, indeed, an improbable development, let’s not consider either team a fluke. Both won their league’s regular-season and tournament titles. FAU has 35 victories in 38 games; SDSU has 31 wins in 37 games. They’ve been consistently excellent all season, and this should be a very good game.
How they got here
Florida Atlantic was given a disrespectful No. 9 seed by the selection committee, despite being the No. 13 team in the NCAA’s own NET rankings, No. 23 in the Pomeroy ratings and No. 25 in the AP poll. But that seed turned out to be more of a problem for the teams in the Owls’ path than the Owls themselves.
Given a tough opening matchup with Memphis (which also deserved better than its No. 8 seed), FAU pulled out a one-point win that went down to the wire and was not without late controversy over a timeout that was granted instead of a jump ball. From there, the Owls were blessed with a second-round game against No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson, which had slayed No. 1 Purdue—that game was in doubt as well until a late 12–2 FAU run.
It wasn’t until the Owls got to Madison Square Garden that they began playing their best basketball of the tournament. They exerted their will on Tennessee in the late stages of a grinding, seven-point victory, before outlasting Kansas State in a 79–76 thriller to reach the Final Four.
Fifth-seeded San Diego State also had to win a tight first-round game against dangerous College of Charleston, leading most of the way but then winding up in a tie game with less than three minutes to play. The Aztecs held Charleston without a field goal from 3:27 until 19 seconds remained to pull that out, then got their own upset break when second-round opponent Furman took down No. 4 Virginia. SDSU rolled over the Paladins and into the Sweet 16 in Louisville.
That’s when San Diego State sent the tournament into a tizzy by knocking off the overall No. 1 seed, Alabama. Down nine in the second half, the Aztecs mounted a gritty rally that shocked the Crimson Tide. In an inartistic but tense regional final against Creighton, the Aztecs overcame a seven-point second-half deficit, winning on a controversial foul call and free throw with 1.2 seconds left.
Best individual matchup
Both these teams win by committee, going nine-deep and substituting players in bunches, so there aren’t any superstars on either side. SDSU’s leading scorer, Matt Bradley, averages just 12.5 points per game. FAU’s top guy, Johnell Davis, averages 13.9.
The 6'4" Davis is the guy who can make the toughest baskets for FAU, able to finish off the dribble with either hand or post up. He shot poorly from the perimeter in Madison Square Garden, going 0–7 from three-point range, but he also draws a lot of fouls (37 of 41 at the free throw line in the C-USA and NCAA tourneys so far). San Diego State could counter with length (6'6" Micah Parrish and 6'7" Keshad Johnson) or strength (6'4", 220-pound Bradley). Bradley really struggled offensively in Louisville, scoring eight points in two games, and he hasn’t made a three since the Charleston game. He could be due to break out—but if he doesn’t, SDSU still has other options.
Coaching strategy
It will be an interesting matchup of teams that count on their depth to wear down opponents as games progress; that advantage should be nullified both ways.
San Diego State hangs its hard hat on stopping offenses. The Aztecs are fourth nationally in defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy, locking up opponents on the perimeter. They allow just 27.8% accuracy from three, the second-lowest percentage in the nation. Their last eight opponents have failed to score 65 points. As the message read on the whiteboard in the team’s locker room in Louisville, .
Offense is a chore, with points often generated via offensive rebounds and defensive turnovers. Brian Dutcher’s team is perfectly happy to grind away in a methodical half-court game, one physical possession at a time.
Florida Atlantic would prefer to go a little faster offensively, aggressively pushing the ball upcourt and hunting early shots. Forty-four percent of their shots are from three (one of the higher percentages in the nation), which will be in conflict with SDSU’s strong perimeter defense. The Owls’ 22-turnover game against Kansas State was an outlier for a team that is usually better than that protecting the ball.
Defensively, Dusty May’s team has improved as the season has progressed. Opponents are making just 44.8% of their two-point field goals and not getting many second-chance opportunities despite FAU’s lack of size. Center Vladislav Goldin, the 7'1" exception to the Owls’ short rule, was a huge presence inside against K-State and will be needed for 25-plus minutes against San Diego State.
Prediction
San Diego State 65, Florida Atlantic 62.